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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest shock.

However this year's competition is profoundly different. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and longtime strugglers ascending together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a given after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still